Paper Number

1960

Paper Type

Completed

Description

Investor psychology provides an important avenue for modeling non-fundamental behaviors in financial analysis. Yet, whether market psychological information has a practical application in predicting asset returns is still under debate. Thus, a burgeoning number of machine learning algorithms have been developed to test the effectiveness of investor psychology in financial predictions. With all the merits of machine learning approach, the drawbacks are prediction biases, data overfitting issues and poor performance. To address these issues, we developed a DeepPsych system to harness the power of high frequency TRMI psychology data for market prediction. In a “hybridization–generalization–dual-channel-fusion” three-stage experiment, we evaluate each proposed module and the entire framework against the state-of-art machine learning benchmarks on investor psychology and trading data of the SPY (SP500 ETF). Results demonstrate that our deep learning framework can automatically identify features that are more effective than fundamental factors and support profitable trading.

Comments

13-DataAnalytics

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Dec 11th, 12:00 AM

DeepPsych: Harnessing Market Psychology with Deep Learning

Investor psychology provides an important avenue for modeling non-fundamental behaviors in financial analysis. Yet, whether market psychological information has a practical application in predicting asset returns is still under debate. Thus, a burgeoning number of machine learning algorithms have been developed to test the effectiveness of investor psychology in financial predictions. With all the merits of machine learning approach, the drawbacks are prediction biases, data overfitting issues and poor performance. To address these issues, we developed a DeepPsych system to harness the power of high frequency TRMI psychology data for market prediction. In a “hybridization–generalization–dual-channel-fusion” three-stage experiment, we evaluate each proposed module and the entire framework against the state-of-art machine learning benchmarks on investor psychology and trading data of the SPY (SP500 ETF). Results demonstrate that our deep learning framework can automatically identify features that are more effective than fundamental factors and support profitable trading.

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