Abstract

The objective of this study is to provide a framework for predicting the expected duration of a competitive advantage due to adoption of an emerging technology, and suggest a process for generating technology specific benchmark of expected duration for the average adopting firm. Our framework integrates elements from the technology adoption (diffusion) cycle, hype cycles of emerging technologies, and the resource based view conceptualization of number of firms associated with a perfectly competitive market equilibrium. The objective of this synthesis is to generate a framework for estimating average technology diffusion time and standard deviation. Given the prevailing assumption that technology diffusion follows an approximate bell shaped distribution, we can use these two values to estimate the duration of a technology adoption related competitive advantage. We demonstrate the empirical estimation of expected duration of competitive advantage for an emerging technology (cloud computing) and a mature one (ERP).

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