Abstract

As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes increasingly embedded in educational technologies, its influence on assessment in Information and Communications Technology (ICT) education is both significant and contested. This paper introduces a foresight-informed approach to examine institutional readiness and strategic direction for AI-integrated assessment. Drawing on document analysis of 537 policy and strategy documents from 39 Australian universities, the study identifies three institutional response types: compliance-centric, strategically aligned, and fragmented innovators. These categories underpin the construction of divergent, forward-looking trajectories that illustrate how assessment practices may evolve under varying institutional conditions. Rather than offering predictions, the trajectories act as reflective tools to inform anticipatory planning and policy dialogue. By surfacing tensions across pedagogy, governance, and digital capacity, the study demonstrates how futures thinking can guide ethical, strategic, and workforce-aligned assessment reform. The findings offer actionable insights for curriculum designers, educational leaders, and policymakers navigating a rapidly changing technological and labour market landscape.

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