PACIS 2019 Proceedings


We propose a parameter monitoring method for the forward intensity model – the default probability prediction model of the Credit Research Initiative (CRI). We review the relative statistical process control scheme in the field of engineering. Based on this, we propose a new Multivariate Exponential Weighted Moving Average (MEWMA) scheme to monitor the forward intensity model monthly. This new chart might be applied to identify and diagnose the out-of-control (OC) parameters in real time as the data updating, which reduces the cost of recalculating all parameters and improve the operational and calculational efficiency of the default prediction models in practical application.