Document Type



There have been attempts to examine technological structure and linkage as technological impact. Cross-impact analysis (CIA) has been mainly employed with cross-impact index to identify core technologies. Cross-impact index, however, cannot successfully capture the overall relationship based on the impacts among technologies. Furthermore, it is a time-consuming task to calculate all cross-impact index especially based on patents without developing computer program. To address this limitation, this study suggests new approach to identify core technologies in technological cross-impact interrelationship. Specially, the approach applied data mining technique and multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) method to the co-classification information of registered patents. At first, technological cross-impact matrix is constructed with the confidence values by applying association rule mining (ARM) to the co-classification information of patents. Then, Analytic Hierarchical Process (ANP), one of MCDM methods, is employed to the constructed matrix for identifying core technologies from the perspectives of overall cross-impacts. A case study of telecommunication technology is conducted to illustrate the process of executing and utilizing the proposed approach. It is expected that suggested approach could help technology planners to formulate strategy and policy for technological innovation.