As the fast technology evolution and the globalization trend, the competition among businesses transform into supply chain network gradually. However, the operation performance of the supply chain network influenced by many uncertain factors. These uncertain influence factors include the demand of the customer, the response time of delivery, operation lead time, stock level and cost. Under foregoing conditions, enterprises cannot control the variations in actual environment precisely and satisfy customers’ requirements. Therefore, the linguistic variables are used to express these uncertainties in this paper. First, this paper presents a procedure to transform the operation processes of the supply chain network into a diagram to indicate the activities among members of supply chain. Second, combining fuzzy set theory with the program evaluation and review technique (PERT) to estimate the cycle time of supply chain system. According to the fuzzy PERT model, we can calculate the cycle time and find out the critical path of a supply chain system. Furthermore, we can compute the possibility of the order fulfillment of a supply chain system. Finally, a numerical simulation is presented to illustrate the procedure of this proposed model.
Chen, Chentung and Huang, Sue-Fen, "Applying fuzzy PERT in cycle time management for supply chain system" (2003). ICEB 2003 Proceedings. 5.