Document Type



This paper discusses about a management tool for effective project progress. Considered issue in this paper is a problem to estimate rational duration of each elementary operation for meeting final due completion time of a project. An effective procedure is proposed for this purpose that includes decision tree analysis, Bayes formula and particular iterative probability calculation. Three cases were examined to analyse the characteristics of the proposed procedure and it was clarified that this procedure provide a powerful support function for project planning and progress activities in the era of IT-oriented business environment, where the right timely decisions are critical.