Description
Polls are among the most fundamental procedures used to measure voting trends in elections. However, polling not only demands significant resources, but also incorporates several intrinsic barriers that may hinder its applicability. This paper examines an innovative methodology to explore the use of social media as an alternative to enhance the cost-effectiveness of polling while increasing significantly prediction power to overcome the constraints of traditional polls. The proposed methodology is based on the analysis of content gathered from public Web 2.0 technologies, and in this particular case, applied on the scenario of the 2012 Dominican Republic presidential elections. Forecasting voting trends obtained from this methodology, and comparing such results with headline final election results, opens a promising road, not only to consolidate knowledge in this field, but also, as an innovative alternative for practitioners that might remarkably broaden electoral marketing strategies. The proposed method’s setbacks and limitations are also discussed.
Recommended Citation
Maldonado, Miguel and Sierra, Vicenta, "Can social media predict voter intention in elections?_x000D_
The case of the 2012 Dominican Republic Presidential Election." (2015). AMCIS 2015 Proceedings. 11.
https://aisel.aisnet.org/amcis2015/SpanishLang/GeneralPresentations/11
Can social media predict voter intention in elections?_x000D_ The case of the 2012 Dominican Republic Presidential Election.
Polls are among the most fundamental procedures used to measure voting trends in elections. However, polling not only demands significant resources, but also incorporates several intrinsic barriers that may hinder its applicability. This paper examines an innovative methodology to explore the use of social media as an alternative to enhance the cost-effectiveness of polling while increasing significantly prediction power to overcome the constraints of traditional polls. The proposed methodology is based on the analysis of content gathered from public Web 2.0 technologies, and in this particular case, applied on the scenario of the 2012 Dominican Republic presidential elections. Forecasting voting trends obtained from this methodology, and comparing such results with headline final election results, opens a promising road, not only to consolidate knowledge in this field, but also, as an innovative alternative for practitioners that might remarkably broaden electoral marketing strategies. The proposed method’s setbacks and limitations are also discussed.