Start Date

10-12-2017 12:00 AM

Description

This paper develops a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to understand how users' backing experience affects their subsequent funding decisions in Kickstarter. Specifically, we examine the role of failures, which includes funding failure and delivery failure. We further categorize delivery failure into "product not as promised" and "delivery not on time". By investigating the impact from different types of project failure, we seek to discover whether individual learning exists, and how individuals learn from different types of project failures. With such knowledge, this work-in-progress is aimed to shed light on the platform’s system design, pricing, and policy making with counterfactual analysis.

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Dec 10th, 12:00 AM

Learning from Project Failure in Kickstarter

This paper develops a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to understand how users' backing experience affects their subsequent funding decisions in Kickstarter. Specifically, we examine the role of failures, which includes funding failure and delivery failure. We further categorize delivery failure into "product not as promised" and "delivery not on time". By investigating the impact from different types of project failure, we seek to discover whether individual learning exists, and how individuals learn from different types of project failures. With such knowledge, this work-in-progress is aimed to shed light on the platform’s system design, pricing, and policy making with counterfactual analysis.