Management Information Systems Quarterly
Abstract
Recent developments in big data technologies are revolutionizing the field of healthcare predictive analytics (HPA), enabling researchers to explore challenging problems using complex prediction models. Nevertheless, healthcare practitioners are reluctant to adopt those models as they are less transparent and accountable due to their black-box structure. We believe that instance-level, or local, explanations enhance patient safety and foster trust by enabling patient-level interpretations and medical knowledge discovery. Therefore, we propose the RObust Local EXplanations (ROLEX) method to develop robust, instance-level explanations for HPA models in this study. ROLEX adapts state-of-the-art methods and ameliorates their shortcomings in explaining individual-level predictions made by black-box machine learning models. Our analysis with a large real-world dataset related to a prevalent medical condition called fragility fracture and two publicly available healthcare datasets reveals that ROLEX outperforms widely accepted benchmark methods in terms of local faithfulness of explanations. In addition, ROLEX is more robust since it does not rely on extensive hyperparameter tuning or heuristic algorithms. Explanations generated by ROLEX, along with the prototype user interface presented in this study, have the potential to promote personalized care and precision medicine by providing patient-level interpretations and novel insights. We discuss the theoretical implications of our study in healthcare, big data, and design science.