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Change propagation is a central issue in software development process. In early stages of software development, software architecture facilitates the component-based software development process and provides a platform for prediction of requirements change. Keywords: software architecture, requirements change propagation, architectural pattern This paper aims to predict change propagation in early stages of software development, and evaluate the architecture based on architectural pattern. In order to achieve this goal, the change propagation probability is formally defined, and the change propagation in five architectural patterns is discussed. Moreover, change propagation density is defined to extend the pattern-based propagation, which incorporates design metrics into software architecture evaluation. The efficiency of the proposed method is demonstrated through a computational experiment.