Paper Number
ECIS2026-2756
Paper Type
CRP
Abstract
This study examines how crypto markets responded to the multi-stage approval process of the first U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF and identifies an emerging manipulation risk linked to regulatory events. Using an event-study framework on the 30 largest cryptocurrencies, complemented by media coverage and Google search data, we find that markets priced in approval expectations during the Pre-Approval phase, culminating in a “buy-the-rumour, sell-the-news” pattern around the final decision. During this heightened-attention phase, two false-news incidents triggered sharp short-term price swings. We conceptualize these incidents as false-news triggers within a socio-technical framework, representing a potential manipulation mechanism with market-wide reach. Our findings underscore the importance of cautious regulatory communication, robust cybersecurity, and rigorous journalistic verification during the approval process. In addition, we propose AI-based alert systems to detect such narratives. Overall, communication integrity becomes increasingly important as regulatory innovation accelerates the integration of decentralized and traditional finance.
Recommended Citation
Pucher, Adrian; Schiereck, Dirk; and Bormann, Maarten, "FALSE-NEWS TRIGGERS AS NEW MANIPULATION RISK – EVIDENCE FROM THE BITCOIN ETF APPROVAL" (2026). ECIS 2026 Proceedings. 9.
https://aisel.aisnet.org/ecis2026/blockfintech/blockfintech/9
FALSE-NEWS TRIGGERS AS NEW MANIPULATION RISK – EVIDENCE FROM THE BITCOIN ETF APPROVAL
This study examines how crypto markets responded to the multi-stage approval process of the first U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF and identifies an emerging manipulation risk linked to regulatory events. Using an event-study framework on the 30 largest cryptocurrencies, complemented by media coverage and Google search data, we find that markets priced in approval expectations during the Pre-Approval phase, culminating in a “buy-the-rumour, sell-the-news” pattern around the final decision. During this heightened-attention phase, two false-news incidents triggered sharp short-term price swings. We conceptualize these incidents as false-news triggers within a socio-technical framework, representing a potential manipulation mechanism with market-wide reach. Our findings underscore the importance of cautious regulatory communication, robust cybersecurity, and rigorous journalistic verification during the approval process. In addition, we propose AI-based alert systems to detect such narratives. Overall, communication integrity becomes increasingly important as regulatory innovation accelerates the integration of decentralized and traditional finance.
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