Paper Type
ERF
Abstract
Toxic communication is widely assumed to erode open source software (OSS) project health, yet the conditions under which it does so remain poorly understood. This study examines toxicity's organizational consequences using a longitudinal panel of 18,301 GitHub repositories observed quarterly from 2015 through 2024 (732,040 project-quarter observations). Two-way fixed effects panel regression reveals a null unconditional main effect, within projects, elevated toxicity does not on average predict fewer active contributors. However, a meaningful threat-multiplier effect emerges in projects already experiencing contributor decline, where toxicity predicts approximately 11 fewer active contributors in the following quarter. Document-based governance artifacts do not moderate this effect, exhibiting a reactive rather than proactive adoption pattern. Foundation-led organizational sponsorship provides partial evidence of institutional buffering. These findings advance collective action theory by establishing state-dependent resilience in digital commons and distinguishing governance as documentation from governance as operational capacity.
Paper Number
1407
Recommended Citation
Sokiyna, Munsif and Sharma, Pratyush, "Toxicity as a Threat Multiplier in Open Source Projects: Longitudinal Evidence on Conditional Resilience and Governance Limits" (2026). AMCIS 2026 Proceedings. 1.
https://aisel.aisnet.org/amcis2026/vcc/vcc/1
Toxicity as a Threat Multiplier in Open Source Projects: Longitudinal Evidence on Conditional Resilience and Governance Limits
Toxic communication is widely assumed to erode open source software (OSS) project health, yet the conditions under which it does so remain poorly understood. This study examines toxicity's organizational consequences using a longitudinal panel of 18,301 GitHub repositories observed quarterly from 2015 through 2024 (732,040 project-quarter observations). Two-way fixed effects panel regression reveals a null unconditional main effect, within projects, elevated toxicity does not on average predict fewer active contributors. However, a meaningful threat-multiplier effect emerges in projects already experiencing contributor decline, where toxicity predicts approximately 11 fewer active contributors in the following quarter. Document-based governance artifacts do not moderate this effect, exhibiting a reactive rather than proactive adoption pattern. Foundation-led organizational sponsorship provides partial evidence of institutional buffering. These findings advance collective action theory by establishing state-dependent resilience in digital commons and distinguishing governance as documentation from governance as operational capacity.
When commenting on articles, please be friendly, welcoming, respectful and abide by the AIS eLibrary Discussion Thread Code of Conduct posted here.
Comments
VCC