Paper Type
ERF
Abstract
The study examines how institutional news media (Google news) and retail social media (Reddit) function as distinct information channels for the cryptocurrency market. Analyzing 55,282 records with dual sentiment methods, hypothesis testing, Granger causality, and Vector Autoregression, we identified how platform architecture can shape sentiment environments: Reddit exhibits higher positive sentiment than Google News. However, these differences do not have a drastic impact on predictive accuracy or trading returns. Critically, Granger causality reveals that Reddit sentiment leads Bitcoin returns at 3- and 7-days horizons, while Google News sentiment shows no predictive relationship with Bitcoin returns. These findings highlight that platform design determines whether a channel behaves as an early warning signal or a post-event commentary, with a foundation for certain decisions in the market.
Paper Number
1265
Recommended Citation
Shetty, Varsha Ravindra; Balan, Mahesh; Naik, Prajwal Vinod; Saleem, Nihaad; and Zhang, Hengwei, "Institutional vs. Retail Information Channels for Cryptocurrency Market Intelligence: A Comparative Analysis of Signal Quality and Decision Support Implications" (2026). AMCIS 2026 Proceedings. 6.
https://aisel.aisnet.org/amcis2026/sig_dsa/sig_dsa/6
Institutional vs. Retail Information Channels for Cryptocurrency Market Intelligence: A Comparative Analysis of Signal Quality and Decision Support Implications
The study examines how institutional news media (Google news) and retail social media (Reddit) function as distinct information channels for the cryptocurrency market. Analyzing 55,282 records with dual sentiment methods, hypothesis testing, Granger causality, and Vector Autoregression, we identified how platform architecture can shape sentiment environments: Reddit exhibits higher positive sentiment than Google News. However, these differences do not have a drastic impact on predictive accuracy or trading returns. Critically, Granger causality reveals that Reddit sentiment leads Bitcoin returns at 3- and 7-days horizons, while Google News sentiment shows no predictive relationship with Bitcoin returns. These findings highlight that platform design determines whether a channel behaves as an early warning signal or a post-event commentary, with a foundation for certain decisions in the market.
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