Paper Type
Complete
Abstract
This study examines the accuracy of stock recommendations on the Warsaw Stock Exchange during the 2019--2025 period, covering both COVID-19 pandemic and the rise of geopolitical risks after 2022. This analysis uses an event-study approach based on cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) relative to the WIG index to evaluate how stocks performed after issuing a recommendation. For a total of 1817 issued BUY, HOLD and SELL recommendations for 50 companies, the results show that BUY recommendations generate statistically significant positive abnormal returns over longer investment horizons. SELL recommendations are characterized by high target hit ratio, but this does not translate to consistent outperformance related to the market. The recommendations' accuracy differs between the pandemic and post-2022 periods, suggesting that changing market conditions influence the informational value of analyst recommendations.
Paper Number
1533
Recommended Citation
Bartczak, Bartosz and Weichbroth, Pawel, "Evaluation of the validity of selected stock recommendations for companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange" (2026). AMCIS 2026 Proceedings. 14.
https://aisel.aisnet.org/amcis2026/sig_dsa/sig_dsa/14
Evaluation of the validity of selected stock recommendations for companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange
This study examines the accuracy of stock recommendations on the Warsaw Stock Exchange during the 2019--2025 period, covering both COVID-19 pandemic and the rise of geopolitical risks after 2022. This analysis uses an event-study approach based on cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) relative to the WIG index to evaluate how stocks performed after issuing a recommendation. For a total of 1817 issued BUY, HOLD and SELL recommendations for 50 companies, the results show that BUY recommendations generate statistically significant positive abnormal returns over longer investment horizons. SELL recommendations are characterized by high target hit ratio, but this does not translate to consistent outperformance related to the market. The recommendations' accuracy differs between the pandemic and post-2022 periods, suggesting that changing market conditions influence the informational value of analyst recommendations.
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