Capital is always essential for a business project over times. After emerging in 2000, crowdfunding gradually becomes one of the most popular fundraising resources. However, the mechanism of crowdfunding significantly differs from traditional capital-collecting approaches. As long as the amount of pledged money reaches the goal in time, the project succeeds, its initiator receives the funds, the platform gains the revenue, and its backers acquire rewards. Reaching the goal by deadline becomes an important issue. The goal of our study is to develop an effective technique for predicting whether a crowdfunding campaign will succeed or fail. On the basis of a dataset collected from Kickstarter, our empirical evaluation results suggest that our proposed technique significantly outperforms the benchmark method. In addition, with the use of time-dependent factors, the prediction accuracy improves from 72.89% at day 0 to 87.13% at the first day and eventually to 89.62% at day 7.
Chen, Shih-Ying; Chen, Ching-Ning; Chen, Yu-Ren; Yang, Chih-Wei; Lin, Wan-Ching; and Wei, Chih-Ping, "Will Your Project Get the Green Light? Predicting the Success of Crowdfunding Campaigns" (2015). PACIS 2015 Proceedings. 79.