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Abstract

This study uses the modified Gompertz model and sparse data to analyze the growth rates of different types of computer and Internet-related crimes. The Gompertz model is an appropriate diffusion model because it is capable of modeling two opposite behaviors: (1) acts of attacks and imitation of attacks and (2) deterrence acts to prevent such attacks. In addition, this model can handle sparse data adequately. The model was used to analyze various types of attacks. The results indicated that growth patterns of computer and Internet crimes differ in growth patterns and that a relationship exists between occurrences of such security breaches and uses of certain security technologies. Thus, for example, financial fraud and denial of service are growing at a faster pace. The study also found, for example, that an increase in virus-related incidents does not necessarily increase anti-virus software use.

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