Description
Predicting the future of disruptive technological innovations is an essential task of any business leader. Looking into the future of disruptive technologies requires an epistemological stance that accommodates the inherent uncertainty and non-linearity of these technologies. Unfortunately, much of the current theoretical tradition with respect to adoption and diffusion of innovation is linear and deterministic; it does not accommodate the inherent uncertainty and non-linearity of disruptive technologies. This work in progress is an attempt to propose a philosophical base together with a practical method that would allow business professionals to glimpse into the future of disruptive technologies. This proposed approach is referred to in this paper as “the method of alternative histories”. This approach is based on the philosophical ideas of Imre Lakatos, Roy Bhaskar, Bruno Latour, and Nassim Taleb.
Recommended Citation
Krotov, Vlad, "Predicting the Future of Disruptive Technologies: The Method of Alternative Histories" (2017). AMCIS 2017 Proceedings. 2.
https://aisel.aisnet.org/amcis2017/PhilosophyIS/Presentations/2
Predicting the Future of Disruptive Technologies: The Method of Alternative Histories
Predicting the future of disruptive technological innovations is an essential task of any business leader. Looking into the future of disruptive technologies requires an epistemological stance that accommodates the inherent uncertainty and non-linearity of these technologies. Unfortunately, much of the current theoretical tradition with respect to adoption and diffusion of innovation is linear and deterministic; it does not accommodate the inherent uncertainty and non-linearity of disruptive technologies. This work in progress is an attempt to propose a philosophical base together with a practical method that would allow business professionals to glimpse into the future of disruptive technologies. This proposed approach is referred to in this paper as “the method of alternative histories”. This approach is based on the philosophical ideas of Imre Lakatos, Roy Bhaskar, Bruno Latour, and Nassim Taleb.